Pakistan's General Raheel Sharif Goes to Washington: Déjà Vu All Over Again

As Raheel Sharif visits the United States, it’s worth taking stock of how little has changed in U.S.-Pakistan relations.

By Michael Kugelman

November 17, 2015

Imagine you’re the U.S. ambassador to Pakistan, and you’ve been tasked to draft a cable to prepare American officials in Washington for the visit of General Raheel Sharif, the Pakistani army chief who has arrived in town for a five-day trip.

So what would you say?

First, you’d counsel some conciliatory comments: “We should recognize growing Pakistani casualties in the fight against militants … [and] reiterate the long-term U.S. commitment to support Pakistan.”

Soon thereafter, however, you’d urge your Washington counterparts to get down to business: “We need to lay down a clear marker that Pakistan’s Army/ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan’s spy agency] must stop overt or tacit support for militant proxies.”

And then you’d get to the heart of the matter: “The single biggest message … is that this support must end. It is now counterproductive to Pakistan’s own interests and directly conflicts with USG objectives in Afghanistan—where [the] Haqqani [network] is killing American soldiers and Afghan civilians,” and in the broader region, where the Mumbai terror attacks of 2008 “exposed the fruits of previous ISI policy to create Lashkar-e-Taiba and still threatens potential conflict between nuclear powers.”

Some thoughts on Afghanistan would be in order: “We should ask for his views on what political end state in Afghanistan would convince him to end proxy support for militants.”

And on India as well: “Indo-Pak tensions are still simmering, but to avoid a potential Indian military strike, the GOP [government of Pakistan] needs to continue to show progress on prosecuting those Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives responsible for the Mumbai attacks.”

Nuclear proliferation too: “We believe that the military is proceeding with an expansion of both its growing strategic weapons and missile programs.”

There would also be some obligatory words on U.S. military aid to Pakistan: “We continue to work on delivering Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance aerial capability,” and “we need to come to agreement with Pakistan” on aligning U.S. military support with Pakistan’s long-term counterterrorism needs.

Finally, you’d wrap up with some suggested talking points for conversations with General Sharif. Their tone would range from cordial (“What we seek going forward is an all-encompassing bilateral relationship based on what we can accomplish for the future.”) and inquisitive (“We must succeed in Afghanistan. What is your vision for what constitutes an acceptable outcome?”) to firm bordering on threatening: “It is time to cut your ties to extremist groups/proxy forces and urge the permanent severing of ties. Such ties hinder trust and our ability to move forward together.”

In fact, there’s nothing hypothetical about this cable. It’s already been written—but not earlier this week. It was transmitted nearly seven years ago—in February 2009, several weeks after President Obama took office, on the eve of a visit to Washington by General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the Pakistani army chief at the time.

And yet it would also be a perfectly suitable memo to set the scene for General Sharif’s Washington meetings this week.

To be sure, much has changed in the U.S.-Pakistan security relationship since 2009. The Pakistanis have significantly ramped up their fight against anti-state militants. The frequency of U.S. drone strikes—another big theme in the 2009 memo—has diminished dramatically. Washington’s nuclear concerns have shifted from Pakistan’s strategic assets to its rapidly intensifying tactical stockpile. Above all, U.S. forces are no longer fighting a combat war in Afghanistan, meaning that Washington does not need as much Pakistani counterterrorism and countermilitancy assistance. Consequently, military aid flows to Pakistan could see some reductions—and the relationship on the whole could be scaled down to an extent.

And yet the more things change, the more they stay the same.

The United States continues to emphasize cooperation with, and a commitment to, Pakistan. It continues to seek Pakistani assistance in Afghanistan, and to ply the Pakistani military with money and material. For good reason, it continues to worry about Pakistan’s nukes and its volatile relationship with India.

And yet through it all, Pakistan’s security establishment continues to nurture ties with militant groups that endanger U.S. interests and lives.

The cold hard calculus of international relations dictates that nations pursue relations with each other to help advance national interests. And yet Washington’s relations with Pakistan have arguably imperiled its core interests as much as they have advanced them. To be sure, Pakistan has helped U.S. military efforts in Afghanistan by offering the use of supply routes, and it has assisted U.S. drone efforts by letting the United States use Pakistani military bases. Additionally, in recent months Pakistan has waged major offensives against militants and their command-and-control systems in North Waziristan. This has brought some much-needed stability (read: fewer terror attacks in Pakistan, at least for now).

And yet even as it pockets billions in U.S. aid and takes in tons of military hardware, Pakistan patronizes proxy groups that terrorize Americans, Afghans, and Indians.

What accounts for this dysfunctional dynamic? One reason is naiveté: a belief that showering Pakistan with aid will, in time, compel it to act in ways that benefit U.S. interests. As Husain Haqqani’s book Magnificent Delusions makes clear, U.S. officials have long been content to keep the aid flowing while holding their noses and hoping for the best. Such an approach is utterly wrong-headed; U.S. aid does not buy Washington leverage over Pakistan. Additionally, U.S. and Pakistani interests are diametrically divergent on the militancy issue. For America, the Haqqani network and Lashkar-e-Taiba are dangerous groups that must be reined in. For Pakistan, these groups are useful assets because they make archenemy India vulnerable.

Another possible reason for Washington’s continued courtship of a nation that works against American objectives and interests? Fear. The United States prefers to be on the good side of a volatile nuclear-armed nation than on its bad side.

Whatever the reason, we can expect more of the same this week in Washington. General Sharif’s meetings will feature plenty of discussion about Afghanistan—and how Pakistan can help bring the Taliban back to the negotiating table. There will presumably be talk of a potential—though highly unlikely—deal to scale back Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program. Sharif will likely make fresh pitches for new military assistance. The United States will issue fresh calls for Pakistan to end its relationships with militants. And through it all, Gen. Sharif will receive the full red carpet treatment—as he did on his last trip to Washington.

It’s possible and desirable to make the best of a difficult relationship. Indeed, there is considerable scope for genuine cooperation—based not on pie-in-the-sky hopes for a nuclear deal, but rather on limited but practical counterterrorism collaboration on shared threats such as al-Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban, and, as November 13 made horrifically clear, an increasingly expansionist ISIS. The Americans and Pakistanis can also work together to resuscitate the Afghan reconciliation process—though despite their best efforts, along with those of China, the Taliban has little incentive to come to the table, given its soaring successes on the battlefield. Additionally, Kabul’s enthusiasm for a peace process with a deep Pakistani imprint has dimmed of late. Yet given the stakes for a war with no military solution, this is something U.S. officials should discuss in earnest with General Sharif.

Nevertheless, none of this will silence the constant refrain yapping at the heels of this relationship: We’ve been here before. Or, as the late and inimitable Yogi Berra famously put it, “It’s déjà vu all over again.”

Disagree? Just refer back to that 2009 cable.

We’ve seen this movie before—literally. “Groundhog Day” is a 1993 film about a weatherman doomed to repeat the same day—Groundhog Day—over and over. It is an apt metaphor for one of diplomacy’s most fraught bilateral partnerships.

When it comes to U.S.-Pakistan security relations, every day is Groundhog Day.

Links: http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/pakistans-general-raheel-sharif-goes-to-washington-deja-vu-all-over-again/

بلوچ خواتین کی اغوا ء پر اقوام متحدہ کی خاموشی حیران کن ہے۔ حیر بیار مری

بلوچ خواتین کی اغوا ء پر اقوام متحدہ کی خاموشی حیران کن ہے۔ حیر بیار مری
لندن (بی یو سی نیوز) بلوچ قوم دوست رہنماء حیر بیار مری نے اپنے ایک بیان میں کہا ہے کہ بلوچ قوم 68 سالوں سے جس پاکستانی دہشتگردی کا شکار ہے اسی دہشتگردی کا یہ برانڈ اب مغربی ممالک کی سرزمین میں بھی داخل ہوچکا ہے۔ بلوچستان میں پاکستانی فوج درندگی و بربریت کی تمام حدیں پار کرکے بلوچ نسل کشی میں شدت لانے کے ساتھ انسانی حقوق کی سنگین خلاف ورزیاں کر رہا ہے بولان کے علاقوں مار واڑ، سانگان و،مار گٹ اور لکڑمیں نہتے بلوچوں کو تشدد کرکے شہید کرنا ، بلوچ بزرگوں کو اذیتیں دے کر دکتے آگ میں پھینکنا ، معصوم بچوں اور بلوچ خواتین کو اغواء کرنا بلوچوں کے گھروں پر فضائی حملے کرکے تباہ کرنا پاکستانی فوج کی بربریت کی انتہا ہے۔انہوں نے کہا کہ پاکستانی فوج نے انسانی حقوق کی تمام قوانین کو بالائے طاق رکھ کر جس انداز میں بلوچ خواتین اور معصوم بچوں کو تشدد کے بعد اغواء کرلیا ہے ایسے سنگین جرائیم پر اقوام متحدہ کی خاموشی انکی کردار پر سوالیہ نشان ہے کیوں کہ پاکستان نے اقوام متحدہ کے چارٹر پر دستخط کیا ہوا ہے اوربین القوامی قوانین کے تحت پاکستان تمام انسانی حقوق کی قراردادوں کا پابند ہے جس میں انسانی حقوق کی بنیادی قرارداد یو ڈی ایچ آر(Universal Declaration of Human Rights (بھی شامل ہے لیکن اسی قرارداد کو روندھ کر پاکستانی فوج بلوچستان بھر میں بلوچ قوم کے خلاف خونی آپریشن کرنے کے ساتھ ساتھ نہ صرف بلوچ قوم کی نسل کشی کا مرتکب ہورہا ہے، بلکہ بلوچ عوام کا قتل عام کرنے، بلوچ سیاسی کارکنان کو اغواء کرنے اور ان کی تشدد زدہ مسخ لاشوں کو بلوچستان کے طول و عرض میں پھینکنے کے علاوہ پاکستان نے بلوچستان میں ریاستی بربریت میں تیزی لاتے ہوئے اب بلوچ خواتین کو اغواء کرنا شروع کردیا ہے ۔ انھوں نے کہا کہ گزشتہ کچھ ہفتوں سے بلوچستان کے ضلع بولان کے مختلف علاقوں میں جاری پاکستانی فوجی بربریت کے دوران اٹھائیس بلوچ خواتین کو بچوں سمیت کا اغوا بلوچستان میں جاری ریاستی دہشتگردی کی تسلسل ہے۔حیربیار مری نے کہا کہ اقوام متحدہ بوکو حرام اور عراقی جہادی تنظیموں کی طرف سے خواتین کو اغواء کرنے کی ہر وقت شدید مذمت کرتا ہے لیکن پاکستان جو کہ اقوام متحدہ کا رکن ہے اور درجنوں جہادی تنظیموں کا تولید کنندہ ہے اس کی طرف سے مار واڑ، سانگان، مارگٹ
اور بلوچستان کے دیگر علاقوں سے بلوچ خواتین و معصوم بچوں کو اغواء کرنے پر اقوام متحدہ کی مکمل خاموشی اس کی انسانی حقوق کی پاسداری کے دعوؤں پر سوالیہ نشان ہے اور انسانی حقوق کی تنظیموں کی خاموش تماشائی پاکستان کی گھناؤنی درندگی کو مزید تقویت دینے کے مترادف ہے۔ انھوں نے کہا کہ جب بلوچ عوام اپنی دفاع اور ننگ و ناموس کی حفاظت کیلئے پاکستانی بربریت کے خلاف کوئی بھی قدم اٹھاتے ہیں تو اقوام متحدہ اور انسانی حقوق کی تنظیمیں واویلا کرنا شروع کر دیتے ہیں ہونا تو چائیے تھا کہ اقوام متحدہ اور انسانی حقوق کی تنظیمیں پاکستانی بربریت پر بھی نظر رکھتے اور اس کا نوٹس لیتے ۔ پاکستان آرمی کی بلوچ ننگ و ناموس کو پامال کرنے کی اس سنگین عمل نے بلوچ عوام کو شدید ذہنی اضطراب اور غم و غصے میں مبتلاء کردیا ہے پاکستان آرمی کی غیر انسانی عمل بین القوامی قوانین کی پامالی اور اقوام متحدہ کے چارٹر کی نفی ہے اور اس بر بریت نے بلوچ اور پاکستان کے درمیان تضادات کو مزید ابھار کر واضح کردیا ہے اب پاکستان آرمی کا یہ غیر انسانی عمل بلوچ عوام کیلئے ناقابل برداشت بن چکا ہے انھوں نے کہا کہ اقوام متحدہ اور انسانی حقوق کی تنظیمیں پاکستانی بربریت کا نوٹس لیکر اپنے چارٹر کی پاسداری کریں۔بلوچ قوم دوست رہنماء نے پیرس میں معصوم شہریوں کے قتل کی مذمت کرتے ہوئے کہا پیرس پر سفاکانہ حملے کے بعد فرانس سمیت دوسرے یورپی ممالک اپنے خارجہ پالیسی واضح اصولوں کے تحت تشکیل دیں کیوں کہ مذہبی دہشتگرد ریاست پاکستان کا جمہوری طاقتوں کا اتحادی ہونا اور دوسری طرف اسی سوچ پر عمل پیراء داعش جیسی تنظیموں کو دشمن قرار دیکر اعلان جنگ کرنا اپنے آپ کو دھوکہ دینے کے مترادف ہے انہوں نے کہا کہ بلوچ قوم گزشتہ 68سالوں سے مذہبی انتہا پسند پاکستانی فوج کی جانب سے مذہب کے نام پر ریاستی دہشتگردی کا سامنا کر رہی ہے اوراسی سوچ کو لے کر داعیش مغربی ممالک پر حملہ آور ہے آج عالمی دنیا کے لیڈر اس بات پر متفق ہیں کہ مذہبی دہشتگردی ایک نظریاتی جنگ کی شکل اختیار کرچکی ہے مگر اب تک مغربی دنیا اس حقیقت کو تسلیم کرنے سے ہچکچا رہی ہے کہ پاکستان اور ایران جیسے مذہبی دہشتگرد تنظیموں کے بانی اور داعش جیسی تنظیم کی سوچ و نظریات میں کوئی فرق نہیں ہے۔

Pakistan Forces Burn to Ashes Ghulam Mohammed’s Baloch (Chairmain BMN) House .

Personnel of paramilitary FC have set on fire the houses of late Baloch leader Ghulam Mohammed Baloch and his relatives which are located in the same compound.

Late Sunday evening, hundreds of FC soldiers surrounded the compound and torched 14 mud houses belonging to Ghulam Mohammed Baloch and his relatives in his native Mand town, a region bordering Iran.

“You’re a family of traitors. Next time, we’ll burn you all,” the FC soldiers threatened the women present in the compound.

Ghulam Mohammed Baloch was a major Baloch leader, who founded Baloch National Movement, now the largest nationalist party in Balochistan. He was abducted by FC personnel from his lawyers’ chamber in Turbat on April 3, and then his bullet-riddles mutilated body was found dumped in a desolated area near the Turbat city on April 8. He had been previously jailed and tortured for years.

BNM’s foreign secretary Hammal Haider Baloch said the military establishment has resorted to harassing the families of Baloch leaders.

“Hundreds of houses have been burnt all around Balochistan. Some have been razed to ground,” he said.

He added the military had killed Chairman Ghulam Mohammed Baloch in 2009, but still their hatred for him hasn’t faded away. “They think he was the leader of this movement, so let’s teach a lesson to the Baloch people by destroying everything that is somehow related to Ghulam Mohammed.”

Ghulam Mohammed was a key political leader, who helped United Nations to release an American head of UNHCR, John Solecki, who was abducted by Baloch militants in 2009. After Ghulam Mohammed’s assassination at the hands of Pakistan military, the UN and US embassy in Pakistan issues statements to condemn his killing and appreciated his efforts for Solecki’s release.

http://aftribune.com/pakistan-forces-burn-to-ashes-ghulam-mohammeds-house/

Paris three days after: state of emergency, profiteers and confusions

Political organisations cannot demonstrate legally in Paris right now, and this helps to ensure that the official discourse is not contested in the streets, and makes it harder for activists to work out collectively a way forward. In addition, for the moment, left organisations have been nervous about calling demonstrations even for next weekend.

President François Hollande, as well as declaring the State of Emergency, has called for a “war without pity”, and has just finished addressing parliament (though no debate or vote is planned, just his speech!). Parliament is sitting in an emergency configuration, where members and senators are all gathered together (and seated in apolitical alphabetical order rather than each with their own political party). Every symbol of national unity is thus being mobilised: Hollande received each party leader separately, including the fascist leader Marine Le Pen, and each was given in this way a platform to give their view of priorities. Le Pen insisted “we’re part of national unity” while demanding all migrants be deported. Sarkozy, from the Republican right said that we are at war and that everything must change. Few details, but the main thrust is: “more powers to the state: the people can trust us”. But how can a national unity including Sarkozy and Le Pen be of any help to ordinary workers and ordinary citizens who these monsters want to divide and crush?
Hollande’s rather clownish speech to parliament was peppered with meaningless gesticulation, but promised more bombing for Syria, more money for anti-terrorist police forces, and more powers for house arrest and for rapid deportation. Fifty more aeroplanes are being sent over to Syria, and military journalists on the radio are getting all excited about the shape of their wings. The army will be recruiting all year. “We will eradicate terrorism”, Hollande repeated five times.
https://redflag.org.au/article/paris-three-days-after-state-emergency-profiteers-and-confusions