Free speech, human rights,Freedom, equality and accountability. We all human are same.Balochistan act for justice on a wide range of issues.Event and News related to Balochistan and world. Baloch In Balochistan have been disappeared and hanged and or murdered by Pakistan's military and securities agencies and Iran regime. Pakistan rarely allows journalists or human rights organizations to travel freely in Balochistan and coverage in the world press is inadequate.
Friday, February 28, 2014
بلوچ سرزمین پر 2006ء سے ابتک 14ہزار بلوچوں کو قتل کیا گیا ، براہمدغ بگٹی -
کوئٹہ (مانیٹرنگ ڈیسک) بلوچ ری پبلکن پارٹی کے سربراہ نواب براہمدغ بگٹی نے بلوچستان میں ریاستی ظلم جبر بربریت و انسانی حقوق کی خلاف ورزیوں کی جانب اقوام متحدہ و انسانی حقوق کے اداروں کی توجہ مبذول کراتے ہوئے کہا ہے
- See more at: http://www.qudrat.com.pk/?p=82365#sthash.D9vra3ax.dpuf
Because family matters!
- Balochs make history in search for loved ones, reach Rawalpindi after walking more than 2,000 kilometres from Quetta
- March participants say they are frustrated with the government and courts, even willing to seek NATO’s help in recovery of their loved ones
Writing history as they set on foot to Islamabad from Quetta three months ago, the families and supporters of the people reportedly whisked away by intelligence agencies from various parts of the restive Balochistan province, reached Rawalpindi on Thursday, travelling more than 2,000 kilometres in adverse weather conditions and intimidation by government agencies.
The participants, led by Mama Qadeer Baloch under the aegis of the Voice of Missing Baloch Persons (VMBP), hope to raise awareness about human rights violations in Balochistan and demand the recovery of their missing relatives.
Mama Qadeer told Pakistan Today that the marchers were disappointed with the government and were frustrated with the courts. He said that they wish to present their demands to the United Nations in Islamabad. “We are even ready to ask the UN to send North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) troops to Balochistan to recover our loved ones,” he said.
Mama Qadeer has been campaigning for the recovery of missing persons since 2009 when his son Jalil was killed in the custody of secret agencies.
HINDERANCES:
The marchers said that they have faced many problems in their journey.
Around 30 people are participating in the march and plan to continue their journey via Murree Road to Islamabad, which is around 30 kilometres from the UN office.
The march had started from Quetta on October 27, 2013. The first phase, a 730-kilometre walk, ended in Karachi with a demonstration in front of the press club on November 23. The second phase began in mid-December. The participants walked through various cities of Punjab, including Multan and Lahore, where they were threatened by unidentified people on the telephone to turn back and desist from heading to the federal capital.
“We have been protesting for the last five years for the recovery of our loved ones,” Mama Qadeer lamented.
HISTORY MADE:
Mama Qadeer, aged 72, and 11-year old Ali Haider Baloch are not aware that they have made history.
They and the other participants broke the 84-year-old record of Mahatma Gandhi who travelled for 390 kilometers on foot from Ahmadabad to Dandi as part of his famous salt march. When Mahatma Gandhi started his march in 1930 to protest against the salt laws of the British government in colonial India, he was 61 years old.
Chinese leader Mao Zedong also started a long march in 1934 but this long march was actually a military retreat undertaken by the red army of Communist Party. There was no single long march but a series of marches because various parts of the red army in the south China escaped to the north and the west.
The red army of 41 years old Mao Zedong regrouped and then attacked Kuomintang. This long march was part of a military strategy. It was not a political long march.
The word long march was used and abused by many politicians after Mahatma Gandhi and Mao Zedong but nobody traveled on foot. Most of the politicians used vehicles in their long marches.
Late Benazir Bhutto even took a rail ride in her long march from Lahore to Islamabad against Nawaz Sharif government in 1992. She called off the long march near Wazirabad when she was informed that President Ghulam Ishaq Khan had decided to demand resignation from Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Nawaz Sharif also used the word long march in his Tehreek-e-Nijat against Benazir Bhutto government in 1994.
The word long march was again used in lawyer’s movement for the restoration of deposed judges. Nawaz Sharif started his long march from Lahore to Islamabad in March 2009 but he was travelling in a jeep not on foot.
Ali Haider Baloch stopped going to school and joined the long march with his elder sister Saba. His father Ramzan Baloch was abducted in front of the eyes of young Ali Haider. Farzana Majid Baloch is a well-educated woman. She did her Masters in bio-chemistry from Balochistan University and has been raising voice for the production of her younger brother Zakir Majid Baloch since 2009. She is secretary general of VBMP and the moving spirit behind this historical long march.
Daughters of two missing doctors, Deen Muhammad Baloch and Akbar Marri, are also participating in this. The daughter of a missing lawyer Haider Khan Baloch advocate was disappointed in courts and joined the long march of Mama Qadeer Baloch along with some other women.
Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif visited the marchers’ camp in Karachi in December 2013 and assured Mama Qadeer that their dear ones will be produced in courts soon. The defence minister has been unable to keep his word so far!
http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2014/02/27/national/because-family-matters/
72-year-old Mama Qadeer Baloch breaks record of Gandhi after 84 years .
Hamid MirTuesday, February 25, 2014
From Print Edition
From Print Edition
ISLAMABAD: Abdul Qadeer Baloch, aged 72, and 11-year old Ali Haider Baloch are not aware that they have made history.
This old man and young boy have travelled more than 2,000 kilometers on foot along with a group of Baloch women and men on their way from Quetta to Islamabad.
The purpose of their non-violent long march was to raise voice against enforced disappearances in Balochistan. They broke the 84-year-old record of Mahatma Gandhi who traveled for 390 kilometers on foot from Ahmadabad to Dandi as part of his famous salt march.
When Mahatma Gandhi started his march to protest against the salt laws of British Government in the colonial India he was 61 years old in 1930.
The youngest among the first 80 marchers with Gandhi was 18 years old. Gandhi opposed unjustified taxes on the production of salt and started disobedience by making salt himself.
Chinese leader Mao Zedong also started a long march in 1934 but this long march was actually a military retreat undertaken by the red army of Communist Party.
There was no single long march but a series of marches because various parts of the red army in the south China escaped to the north and the west.
The red army of 41 years old Mao Zedong regrouped and then attacked Kuomintang. This long march was part of a military strategy. It was not a political long march.
The word long march was used and abused by many politicians after Mahatma Gandhi and Mao Zedong but nobody traveled on foot. Most of the politicians used vehicles in their long marches.
Late Benazir Bhutto even took a rail ride in her long march from Lahore to Islamabad against Nawaz Sharif government in 1992. She called off the long march near Wazirabad when she was informed that President Ghulam Ishaq Khan had decided to demand resignation from Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Again Nawaz Sharif also used the word long march in his Tehreek-e-Najat against Benazir Bhutto government in 1994.
The word long march was again used in lawyer’s movement for the restoration of deposed judges. Nawaz Sharif started his long march from Lahore to Islamabad in March 2009 but he was traveling in a jeep not on foot.
Zardari Government communicated him a message through the then Army Chief General Kayani about the restoration of judges when he reached Gujranwala and the long march was called off.
When Mama Baloch announced his long march from Quetta to Karachi, many people never took him seriously. He is famous as Mama Qadeer Baloch. He is not protesting against any government laws; he is not demanding the resignation of prime minister and he is not demanding the illegal release of any prisoner. He has been campaigning for the recovery of missing persons since 2009 when his son Jalil was killed in the custody of secret agencies.
He initiated his campaign from the platform of Voice of Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP) and only demands production of missing persons in courts. He started his long march with some families of missing persons from Quetta on 27th October 2013.
Ali Haider Baloch stopped going to school and joined the long march with his elder sister Saba. His father Ramzan Baloch was abducted in front of the eyes of young Ali Haider. Farzana Majid Baloch is a well-educated woman. She did masters in bio-chemistry from Balochistan University and has been raising voice for the production of her younger brother Zakir Majid Baloch since 2009. She is secretary general of VBMP and the moving spirit behind this historical long march.
Daughters of two missing doctors, Deen Muhammad Baloch and Akbar Marri, also joined this long march. The daughter of a missing lawyer Haider Khan Baloch advocate was disappointed in courts and joined the long march of Mama Qadeer Baloch along with some other women.
This small convoy completed 730 kilometers from Quetta to Karachi on foot in 27 days. They faced some problems near Khuzdar and the local administration asked Mama Qadeer Baloch to go back otherwise he will be attacked by miscreants. Mama Qadeer Baloch refused to surrender and continued his march. He was given a warm welcome in Wadh by BNP President Akhtar Mengal and then the guards of Mengal provided protection to Mama Qadeer Baloch till Hub.
The marchers were given big receptions in Hub and Layari. Ghinwa Bhutto, Syed Munawar Hasan and sister of Dr Afia Siddiqui were among those who expressed solidarity with the Baloch marchers. After reaching Karachi, VBMP set up a protest camp outside the Karachi Press Club for many days where National Party President Senator Hasil Bizinju also met Mama Qadeer Baloch and accepted that his Chief Minister in Balochistan Dr Abdul Malick Baloch was powerless to resolve the problem of missing persons.
Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif also visited this camp in December 2013 and assured Mama Qadeer Baloch that their dear ones will be produced in courts soon. The defense minister was unable to fulfill his promise.
Ignorance of government disappointed Mama Qadeer Baloch and he decided to continue his long march from Karachi to Islamabad. Some of his sympathizers opposed the idea of traveling on the roads of Punjab but Mama Qadeer Baloch said: “We must try to awake the people of Punjab because Punjab is Pakistan and only they can return us our thousands of missing persons”.
Mama Qadeer Baloch never faced any problems while crossing Sindh. Many Sindhi nationalist parties expressed solidarity with the marchers in different cities. The marchers started facing problems when they entered Punjab.
This convoy was first stopped in Multan and then in Okara. Armed people in uniform pointed guns at Farzana Majid Baloch and forced her to go back but she refused. Despite threats Seraiki nationalists openly supported the cause of Mama Qadeer Baloch in Multan. When the marchers were crossing the lush green fields of Punjab a truck tried to hit the marchers near Renala Khurd. Two participants, including one female marcher, were injured but the march continued. When they reached Lahore only some human rights activists of HRCP, AHRC and a left wing Awami Workers Party welcomed the marchers.
Chairperson of the Defense for Human Rights Amna Masood Janjua also welcomed the march of Mama Qadeer Baloch in Lahore along with the families of many missing persons from different areas of the Punjab. The so-called guardians of national interest advised many journalists in Lahore to stay away from Mama Qadeer Baloch. Lahorites actually missed the golden opportunity of removing misunderstandings between common Punjabis and the oppressed people of Balochistan.
Mama Qadeer Baloch again faced threats from the commandos of Punjab police near Gujrat. The marchers were asked to go back but they refused. They were not allowed to pass through the Gujrat city. They were forced to go towards Gujrat bypass. Again they were threatened and abused near Sarai Alamgir by one dozen strangers in the presence of local police. When Mama Qadeer Baloch was passing through the garrison area of Jhelum, I joined him for few hours just to see the reaction of local population.
Most of the common Punjabis were not aware that why an old man from Balochistan was marching on the roads with some women and children. Some people offered drinks and water to the marchers but the police and security men in civil dress discouraged the locals.
Mama Qadeer told me that some common Punjabis offered them water, food and night stay at their homes but they were later threatened by the government agencies. Mama said: “We know that all the Punjabis are not bad but intelligence agencies never allowed them to even welcome us. It was against the culture of Punjab.”
Some Baloch students from Lahore and Islamabad joined the march just to give some protection to the small convoy but they used masks to hide their faces. They fear that intelligence agencies will create problems for their families in Balochistan. On the other hand, some intelligence operators traveling with marchers also using masks because they feared the media cameras.
Our media should give more coverage to these non-violent marchers as they don’t say they are against the constitution of Pakistan; they are only demanding implementation of Article 10 of the Constitution which says that law enforcers must produce a suspect in the courts within 24 hours of his arrest.
Mama Qadeer Baloch traveled more than 1,400 kilometers from Karachi to the areas close to Islamabad along with his 7-year-old grandson. Many Baloch, Pakhtun and Sindhi parliamentarians are ready to receive him in Islamabad but these receptions are not solution to his problems. The solution is justice. He made history by traveling more than 2,000 kilometers from Quetta to Islamabad at the age of 72 just for justice.
The government sitting in Islamabad should not disappoint him because Islamabad is his last hope in Pakistan. If justice was denied to him then he will be forced to go to the UN Human Rights Commissioner in Geneva. Who will be responsible for giving a bad name to Pakistan when a 72-year-old man will talk to international media about missing persons in Geneva? What will happen? The powerful security agencies will declare Mama Qadeer Baloch a traitor. His grandson may also be declared a traitor but increasing the number of traitors cannot solve any problem.
Justice and rule of law is the ultimate solution to all the problems. Mama Qadeer Baloch spent this whole winter on the roads. He is coming to Islamabad in the hope of a spring. Don’t break his hopes.
Let it be a spring for him.
هم زور ذبردستی کسی پاس نہیں جائینگے.
:اسلام آباد
.هم زور ذبردستی کسی پاس نہیں جائینگے
.نہ کہ همیں شوق هے. اقوام متحدہ نے همیں خود بلایا هے
هم نیٹو سے اپیل کرتے هیں وہ آئے حلات کو سنبهالے.
.پانی سر سے گزر چکا هے
.خدا کی قسم کر کهتا هوں کہ اگر نواز شریف بهی آئے اس سے بات نہیں کریں گے
.
ماما قدیر کا ڈان نیوز سے کفتگو
How Mama Qadeer made a history?.
How Mama Qadeer made a history?
By Yousaf Ajab Baloch
Baloch human rights activist Mama Qadeer 72, with 20 other Baloch women and children has made a history by breaking 84-year old record of Mahtama Gandi. Gandi had marched 390 kilometers on foot from Ahmedabad to Dandi against British Government in 1930, whereas Mama Qaeer Baloch traveled for more than 2000 kilometers on foot from Quetta to Islamabad through Balochistan, Sindh and Punjab for the harmless release of Baloch missing persons. Mama Qadeer’s this move will make new ways of struggle for young who are fighting for their rights.
This peaceful record has been made after 84-year. Because when Mahatma Gandhi started his Salt March on 12 March 1930 so he was 61- year old but Mama Qadeer Baloch took this responsibility in the age of 72- year.
Qadeer Baloch, known as Mama Qadeer is Vice Chairman of Voice for Baloch Missing Person (VBMP), a non-governmental organization striving for the safe release of Baloch missing persons. Mama Qadeer launched historic long march from Quetta to Karachi and then marched towards Islamabad to highlight the issue of enforced disappearance in Balochistan and ‘Kill and dump’ of Baloch political activists and people from different walks of life allegedly being carried out by secret state agencies.
Mama Qadeer‘s son Jalil Reiki, information secretary of Baloch Republican Party, was abducted on February 14, 2009 in Quetta allegedly by secret state agencies and his bullet riddled body was dumped in the Aap Sar area of Turbat on November 24, 2011.
The long march led by Mama Qadeer Baloch was started on 27 October 2013. Now the marchers have marched over 2000 kilometers. Mama Qadeer, Farzana Majeed and twenty Baloch women of victim families continued their march committedly, saying that they would continue their mission until they see the safe recovery of the disappeared Baloch. Regrettably, according to them not only they received death threats for calling off long march but also routinely the family members of missing persons received mutilated and decomposed dead bodies of disappeared Balochs. Qadeer Baloch and other marchers were also attacked while traveling towards their destination.
The VBMP has been protesting for last four years, yet there have been no extraordinary developments vis-à-vis the recovery of missing persons. Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP) claims disappearance of some 18000 Baloch from different walks of life and 1000 of them have been extra judicially killed . The VBMP leaders assert that current rulers intensified the ‘Abduct, kill and dump’ policies in Balochistan and intelligence agencies have picked up a large number of Baloch political workers to suppress their voice ,however, officials disagree with the claims.
It does not seem that Baloch get justice and missing persons will be released but Mamam Qadeer is of view that long march has highlighted human rights abuse in Balochistan and bloody scenario on international level. “We succeed to convey the message that Baloch people have their own language, history and geography and struggling for ownership of their land and rights.” Said Qadeer Baloch
Mama is committed to continue their struggle until the disappearance and murder of youth and political activists continues. “Our struggle will go on until the safe release of last abducted Baloch in any torture cell and end of military operation in Balochistan.” Said Mama Qadeer Baloch in his recent interview to the Balochistan Point
If the media in Pakistan were balanced and human rights organizations were neutral, Qadeer after 1300 days peaceful strike would have qualified for human rights award. Unfortunately, it is not possible because firstly he is Baloch and secondly motivated against a policy allegedly imposed by real state runners. Therefore, for the media in Pakistan he does not deserve this position as human rights activist.
Mama’s role is really praiseworthy; the Quetta to Karachi and Karachi to Islamabad long march on foot has become a new history in Asia. The long march and more than four years peaceful protest may be productive or not but his character is becoming source of courage for the youngsters to continue struggle for their rights and be committed to their movement.
Published in the Balochistan Point on February 28, 2014
The #VBMPLongMarch is passing through streets of Rawalpindi and heading to Islamabad where helpless Pakistani lawmakers are based.
The #VBMPLongMarch is passing through streets of Rawalpindi and heading to Islamabad where helpless Pakistani lawmakers are based. These parliamentarians are actually the ones who are tightening the rope of slavery around the neck of poor people. If they cannot do anything they have no right to be in the parliament. As you have witnessed in these long and hard three months none of these so called parliamentarians dare to challenge the state atrocities in #Balochistan. Thats why #VBMPLongMarch have rejected them.
VBMP thanks those activists, Baloch and non-Baloch, who have stood by us and are still standing with us to support our peaceful and democratic struggle against state atrocities.
VBMP thanks those activists, Baloch and non-Baloch, who have stood by us and are still standing with us to support our peaceful and democratic struggle against state atrocities.
Erica Chenoweth ! What makes nonviolent civil resistance successful? Erica Chenoweth discusses the strategic logic of nonviolent conflict.
What makes nonviolent civil resistance successful? Erica Chenoweth discusses the strategic logic of nonviolent conflict.
Thursday, February 27, 2014
No one should suffer like this, no one.
This jaw-dropping photo published in The Guardian today shows the line for food at Syria's Yarmouk refugee camp. The UN says that people in this camp have been reduced to eating animal feed!
Since the photo was taken, aid has stopped being delivered because of security concerns. The situation is dire! Take action to end the humanitarian crisis in Syria -->
http://www.theguardian.com/world/picture/2014/feb/26/yarmouk-refugee-camp-damascus-syria
Since the photo was taken, aid has stopped being delivered because of security concerns. The situation is dire! Take action to end the humanitarian crisis in Syria -->
A Rebuttal to Hassan Nisar’s Piece About Balochistan.
By Adnan Aamir
In Pakistan, history is often distorted in textbooks and many intellectuals do the same to prove their arguments. Hassan Nisar is no exception.
In Pakistani media, he is the most vocal person who laments this practice and often gives lengthy lectures on talk shows that there is no such thing as Muslim Ummah and Islam has been hijacked by mullahs and so on.
Unfortunately, when it comes to Balochistan, he did the same for which he vehemently criticizes others – i.e. distortion of facts. He wrote acolumn in a leading Urdu daily of Pakistan that was more like a propaganda handout than a column by an independent and respected mainstream columnist of Pakistan.
Hassan Nisar is of the point of view that much is being said and written on Balochistan without realization of facts. So he made a modest effort to highlight the basic facts of Balochistan that have remained hidden otherwise.
Balochistan is not a subject that finds a mention in either columns or TV program of Hassan Nisar. Whatever transpires in the restive province, including the gross human rights violations such as the discovery of mass graves, is no news for Mr. Nisar. Yet, he considers it his duty to enlighten the people of Pakistan about the “reality” of Balochistan conflict.
Hassan Nisar writes in his column that he visited Quetta several times in order to appear in court hearings. During his visits, he met a lot of local people in airport lounges and Serena hotel. That’s how he got “first-hand” information about Balochistan, which he presents as more authentic than information shared by those who regularly cover Balochistan or the common people who live there.
This is an intellectual dishonesty of mythical proportion and coming from the pen of Hassan Nisar, who criticizes others for distorting the facts, makes it even a bigger moral crime.
Balochistan is the most ignored issue in Pakistani media. And whenever highlighted, it’s mostly for disinformation purpose like the column of Hassan Nisar.
The incorrect demographic figures about Balochistan are often used to present a false case that Baloch are not in majority in the province. Hassan Nisar has followed the same practice to present a compelling case vis-à-vis Baloch population of Balochistan. His readers will happily buy all the incorrect facts written by Hassan Nisar because the source of their knowledge about Balochistan is disinforming articles written by right wing leaning, so-called intellectuals of Pakistan. Hassan Nisar has however failed to mention that Brahvi and Baloch are the same and inseparable in this argument.
Hassan Nisar has quoted the number of members of different Baloch militant groups being just a few hundreds. Even the IG of FC has quoted the number of Baloch militants being between 5,000 to 10,000.
What’s the source of Hassan Nasir’s information about these figures? First-hand information from common people sitting in airport lounges, gatherings of like-mined intellectuals in drawing rooms in Lahore or just figment of imagination. Surely, the source of his information can be anything but a reliable source.
He has also used the cliché that foreign elements are involved in Balochistan insurgency and also named some countries. Again, without any reliable source of information to support his claims.
Mr. Nisar often highlights the trivial matters relating to Lahore in his TV program but even the biggest issues in Balochistan escape his attention. He is not bothered by the sense of deprivation in Balochistan, the historical Voice of Baloch Missing Persons long march and discovery of Mass graves. But he vividly sees the foreign hands and hints to write about it in future. This sort of attitude can be anything but reasonable for an otherwise well-respected columnist.
This column has exposed the progressive credentials of Hassan Nisar and unveiled the real character that is hidden behind the façade of his intellectual character. Those who have any regard for rationality will ignore the pearls of wisdom coming from Hassan Nisar about Balochistan as sheer propaganda. As far as the fans of Hassan Nisar are concerned who staunchly believe in the text of Pakistan Studies books, they will make him their new hero and share his columns to prove that foreign elements are creating disturbance in Balochistan.
His factually incorrect column has proved a point that even the most liberal columnists, intellectuals and writers become hate-mongering propaganda masters when it comes to Balochistan. That’s an inconvenient truth which has gained strength after the publication of his column.
Adnan Aamir is a Freelance writer, researcher and blogger. He writes about politics, current affairs and books. He tweets at@iAdnanAamir and blogs at www.Adnan-Aamir.com
Warning that Pakistan is in danger of collapse within months.
PAKISTAN could collapse within months, one of the more influential counter-insurgency voices in Washington says.
The warning comes as the US scrambles to redeploy its military forces and diplomats in an attempt to stem rising violence and anarchy in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
"We have to face the fact that if Pakistan collapses it will dwarf anything we have seen so far in whatever we're calling the war on terror now," said David Kilcullen, a former Australian Army officer who was a specialist adviser for the Bush administration and is now a consultant to the Obama White House.
"You just can't say that you're not going to worry about al-Qaeda taking control of Pakistan and its nukes," he said.
As the US implements a new strategy in
 |
| David Kilcullen... Pakistan keeps him awake at night. Photo: Supplied Central Asia so comprehensive that some analysts now dub the cross-border conflict "Obama's war", Dr Kilcullen said time was running out for international efforts to pull both countries back from the brink. |
When he unveiled his new "Afpak" policy in Washington last month, the US President, Barack Obama, warned that while al-Qaeda would fill the vacuum if Afghanistan collapsed, the terrorist group was already rooted in Pakistan, plotting more attacks on the US.
"The safety of people round the world is at stake," he said.
Laying out the scale of the challenges facing the US in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Dr Kilcullen put the two countries invaded by US-led forces after the September 11 attacks on the US on a par - each had a population of more than 30 million.
"But Pakistan has 173 million people and 100 nuclear weapons, an army which is bigger than the American army, and the headquarters of al-Qaeda sitting in two-thirds of the country which the Government does not control," he told the Herald .
Added to that, the Pakistani security establishment ignored direction from the elected Government in Islamabad as waves of extremist violence spread across the whole country - not only in the tribal wilds of the Afghan border region.
Cautioning against an excessive focus by Western governments on Afghanistan at the expense of Pakistan, Dr Kilcullen said that "the Kabul tail was wagging the dog". Comparing the challenges in the two, he said Afghanistan was a campaign to defend a reconstruction program. "It's not really about al-Qaeda. Afghanistan doesn't worry me. Pakistan does."
But he was hesitant about the level of resources for, and the likely impact of, Washington's new drive to emulate an Iraq-style "surge" by sending an extra 21,000 troops to Afghanistan.
"In Iraq, five brigades went into the centre of Baghdad in five months. In Afghanistan, it will be two combat brigades [across the country] in 12 months. That will have much less of a punch effect than we had in Iraq.
"We can muddle through in Afghanistan. It is problematic and difficult but we know what to do. What we don't know is if we have the time or if we can afford the cost of what needs to be done."
Dr Kilcullen said a fault line had developed in the West's grasp of circumstances on each side of the Durand Line, the disputed border between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
"In Afghanistan, it's easy to understand, difficult to execute. But in Pakistan, it is very difficult to understand and it's extremely difficult for us to generate any leverage, because Pakistan does not want our help.
"In a sense there is no Pakistan - no single set of opinion. Pakistan has a military and intelligence establishment that refuses to follow the directions of its civilian leadership. They have a tradition of using regional extremist groups as unconventional counterweights against India's regional influence."
In the absence of a regional diplomatic initiative to build economic and trade confidences before tackling the security issue, the implication, Dr Kilcullen said, was that India alone could not give Pakistan the security guarantees Islamabad required.
The special US envoy Richard Holbrooke has been charged with brokering a regional compact by reaching out to Iran, Russia and China, and Dr Kilcullen said: "This is exactly what he's good at and it could work.
"But will it? It requires regional architecture to give the Pakistani security establishment a sense of security which might make them stop supporting the Taliban," he said.
"The best case scenario is that the US can deal with Afghanistan, with President Obama giving leadership while the extra American troops succeed on the ground - at the same time as Mr Holbrooke seeks a regional security deal," he said. The worst case was that Washington would fail to stabilise Afghanistan, Pakistan would collapse and al-Qaeda would end up running what he called 'Talibanistan.'
"This is not acceptable. You can't have al-Qaeda in control of Pakistan's missiles," he said.
"It's too early to tell which way it will go. We'll start to know about July. That's the peak fighting season … and a month from the Afghan presidential election."
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/warning-that-pakistan-is-in-danger-of-collapse-within-months-20090412-a40u.html#ixzz2uZ817DrS
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